Biggest price cuts this run landed in luxury zips, not the high-count zips

HEADLINE: Biggest price cuts this run landed in luxury zips, not the high-count zips SUBHEADLINE: Two enclaves posted the largest single-listing cuts of the period, while the zips with the most reductions overall barely moved the dollar story. BODY: The territory's price cuts this run tell two different stories depending on whether you count listings or count dollars, and they point at different places.

By dollar size, the largest single-listing price cuts recorded in the four-week price window concentrated in two luxury zips. Coto De Caza (92679) accounted for 6 of the 25 largest cuts territory-wide, including a $608,000 reduction on 22 Palma Valley and a $400,000 reduction on 17 Canada Oaks. Laguna Beach (92651) accounted for 5 of the 25 largest cuts, including a $2,995,000 reduction on 18 Lagunita Dr, the single largest cut recorded in the territory this period.

By raw count, a different pair of zips leads. 92637 recorded 21 price cuts and 92694 recorded 20 price cuts, more than any other zip in the territory. Yet neither zip appears among the largest individual cuts by dollar size. Coto De Caza recorded 15 cuts total and Laguna Beach recorded 9, trailing both count leaders.

Last period's report noted 92694 led every zip on price cuts, outcutting its own closings. This period 92694 and 92637 still lead by count, but the story has moved. The zips producing the most price reductions are not the zips producing the biggest individual dollar reductions.

One zip stood almost still this period. Balboa Island (92662) recorded 0 new listings, 0 price cuts, and 3 sales against an active inventory of 23, making it one of the quietest zips in the territory this run.

Territory-wide, homes sold at 98.90% of asking price, and current supply stands at 4.20 months. The territory recorded 306 new listings, 628 sales, and 2,841 active listings against 164 total price cuts.

If you're selling in Coto De Caza or Laguna Beach, know that the biggest reductions this period came from your own zips, on high-priced listings that had sat on the market. A large cut on a comparable property nearby is worth understanding before you set your own number.

If you're buying in 92637 or 92694, cut volume is high but the dollar amounts are smaller. That is a different negotiating position than a $608,000 or $400,000 reduction in a luxury zip, and it is worth knowing which kind of cut you are actually looking at.

What would change this read: whether the luxury-zip cuts this period were one-off listings finally correcting after long market time, or the start of a pattern across more high-end zips. 22 Palma Valley had sat 41 days on market before its cut, and 18 Lagunita Dr had sat 129 days. If more large luxury cuts appear next period on listings with similarly long market time, that is a pattern. If not, this period may be two isolated corrections.

This note draws on the 25 largest price cuts recorded in the four-week price window and the full territory cut counts by zip. It does not tell us why any individual seller cut price, and it does not cover the additional price cuts in the territory beyond the 25 named here and the counts cited by zip.

Chris Robertson