Published September 27, 2026 in Market Update

Laguna Sellers Did Best From $2.5M to $3.5M

By Chris Robertson

Real estate, Laguna 6 Mos

I pulled every lived-in home that sold or came off the market with no sale in Laguna Beach over the past six months, through September 26, 2026. Then I split them by what the seller first asked and scored each range on the things that matter most: how many gave up, how fast the rest sold, and how much of that first price they kept. One range came out on top on almost every measure.

The $2.5M to $3.5M range won on almost every measure

Only 13 homes first asked between $2.5M and $3.5M came off the market with no sale. That is 24.5% of the homes that tried in that range. No other range came close. The next best was $3.5M to $4.75M, where 37.5% gave up. That is 13 percentage points worse.

Speed backed it up. The typical home in the $2.5M to $3.5M range sold in 32 days. That tied the under-$2.5M range for fastest, and beat every range above it. Homes first asked $8.25M and up took 110 days, which is 78 days longer.

The $2.5M to $3.5M range also kept the most of what sellers first asked: 96.7%. That is the highest of any range. Sellers above $8.25M kept only 89.3%, meaning the typical home in that range gave back more than a dollar in ten from its first price.

Forty homes sold in the $2.5M to $3.5M range. The typical sold price was $2,862,500. That is a real market, with real depth, not a thin slice where one or two sales move the numbers.

The surprise is where the under-$2.5M range sits, not at the top

Most people would guess that lower-priced homes are the safest bet. They are not, at least not here. The under-$2.5M range had 42.6% give up, worse than the $3.5M to $4.75M range above it. That is the kind of thing that trips up a seller who prices just under $2.5M thinking they are playing it safe.

The $3.5M to $4.75M range sat in the middle of the pack. It had a 37.5% give-up rate and took 40 days to sell. Sellers there kept 93.8% of their first price. Not bad, but noticeably behind the $2.5M to $3.5M range on every measure.

The $4.75M to $8.25M range is where the math turns hard. Half the homes that tried, 50.9%, came off the market with no sale. The typical home that did sell took 52 days. Sellers kept 94.5% of their first price, which sounds close, but the dollars involved are large. On a $5M home, that gap is real money.

The $8.25M and up range had the worst numbers across the board. More than half gave up (56.9%). The homes that did sell took 110 days and kept only 89.3% of what was first asked.

What sellers and buyers should do differently because of this

If you are selling, the most dangerous thing you can do is price above where the market is deepest. The give-up rate jumps from 24.5% in the $2.5M to $3.5M range to 50.9% in the $4.75M to $8.25M range. That is not a small step up: it is flipping a coin on whether your home sells at all. Right now, 36.8% of the 114 homes for sale in Laguna have already dropped their price, with a typical cut of $245,000. Starting at the right number matters more than leaving room to negotiate.

If you are buying, the rate environment is worth watching. The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before and well above the 6.30% average from a year ago (Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey). That shift changes what a loan-financed purchase costs month to month. Still, 76.4% of Laguna buyers paid cash in this period, so rate moves affect a smaller share of this market than most. If you are using a loan, the homes that sold fastest here went in 32 days in the $2.5M to $3.5M range, so moving with a clear pre-approval matters.