Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Higher rates, but some parts of the buy box are still moving fast

By Chris Robertson
Real estate, Primary Buy Box (Still Orange County)

Rates are high. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed average at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. That is the number every buyer and seller in Orange County is working around right now. But price to your part of the market, because some parts are still moving quickly.

30-year fixed rate, October 22, 2026 (Freddie Mac)
Source: Freddie Mac, read Oct 25, 2026

These numbers cover the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is the period every figure below comes from, so nobody reads old data as today's.

Where homes are moving fastest

Two ZIP codes stood out for speed. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 45.8% of homes in ZIP 92610 (Foothill Ranch) going under contract within two weeks. That share jumped 29.1 points from a year before. ZIP 92672 (San Clemente) matched that same 45.8% figure, up 21.7 points from a year ago. ZIP 92626 (Costa Mesa) was close behind at 40.5%.

Share of homes under contract within two weeks, by ZIP
  1. 192610 Foothill Ranch45.8%
  2. 292672 San Clemente45.8%
  3. 392626 Costa Mesa40.5%
  4. 492604 Irvine34.9%
  5. 592614 Irvine33.3%
  6. 692620 Irvine27.8%
  7. 792660 Newport Beach25.2%
  8. 892630 Lake Forest24.2%
  9. 992612 Irvine20.2%
  10. 1092663 Newport Beach20%
Real Estate Data Aggregator, three months ending August 31, 2026. Lower-volume ZIPs 92602, 92603, 92606, 92618, 92676, and 92782 shown in the ZIP-by-ZIP table below.

Not every part of the market moved that quickly. In ZIP 92676 (Silverado), the Real Estate Data Aggregator found only 12.5% of homes went under contract within two weeks. Median days on market there was 116 days, and no home sold above list price.

Days on market tell a similar story

The Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded a median of 35 days on market in ZIP 92610 (Foothill Ranch), 26 days shorter than a year before. ZIP 92626 (Costa Mesa) came in at 38 days, 3 days shorter than last year. ZIP 92672 (San Clemente) was 40 days, 18 days shorter than a year ago. On the other end, ZIP 92676 (Silverado) sat at 116 days.

Prices are not all moving the same way either

Some prices rose sharply. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price in ZIP 92660 (Newport Beach) at $3,650,000, up 30.9% from a year before. ZIP 92603 (Irvine) hit $2,750,000, up 27.9%. But prices dipped in other spots. ZIP 92663 (Newport Beach) fell 18.7% to $2,685,000. ZIP 92612 (Irvine) dropped 11.4% to $1,100,000. Price direction depends on the ZIP.

Even where prices dipped, sellers mostly got close to their asking price. The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that ZIP 92606 (Irvine) averaged exactly 100% of list price. ZIP 92610 (Foothill Ranch) averaged 99.9%. ZIP 92626 (Costa Mesa) and ZIP 92782 (Tustin) both averaged 99.1%. Pricing right still matters.

Supply is rising in some spots

Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings topped 1.16 million homes for sale in September 2026. Locally, some ZIPs are adding inventory. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 326 homes for sale in ZIP 92618 (Irvine) and 184 in ZIP 92630 (Lake Forest). ZIP 92626 (Costa Mesa) had only 58 homes for sale, down 4.9% from a year before. Less supply there helps explain the faster pace.

Months of supply by ZIP, three months ending August 31, 2026
92626 Costa Mesa
down 0.3 months year over year
92672 San Clemente
down 1 month year over year
92603 Irvine
down 0.7 months year over year
92610 Foothill Ranch
down 0.2 months year over year
92618 Irvine
down 1.2 months year over year
92676 Silverado
no year-over-year comparison available
Source: Real Estate Data Aggregator, the three months ending August 31, 2026

The broader rate picture

Rates are not just high. They climbed fast. Realtor.com reported mortgage rates surged above 7% for the first time since January 2025. CNBC reported the average contract rate for 30-year fixed loans fell slightly to 7.41% from 7.50% in the week ending October 21, 2026. But CNBC also reported mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 7% for that same week and were 18% lower year over year. Higher rates are keeping some buyers on the sidelines.

Realtor.com also noted that price cuts hit 20.8% of listings nationally in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. That is a national figure, not this market's own count. But it is a reminder that overpriced homes are sitting in many markets right now.

ZIP-by-ZIP snapshot

In short
  1. Freddie Mac put the 30-year rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. That is real pressure.
  2. But ZIP 92610 (Foothill Ranch) and ZIP 92672 (San Clemente) each had 45.8% of homes go under contract within two weeks, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator.
  3. ZIP 92626 (Costa Mesa) was at 40.5%.
  4. Other parts of the buy box are slower.
  5. One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it.
  6. If you want to know where your home sits in this picture, reply and I will show you.

Your next step

(949) 777-5607

Text me your address and I will send back how fast homes like yours are moving in your part of Orange County right now, against what actually sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026. Takes a day, costs nothing.

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Where these numbers came from